Indonesia’s Economic Growth and Power-Sector Emissions: Development Outpacing Decarbonization

Indonesia is ranked fourth among the world's most populous countries (Statista, 2025) and among the world's top ten emitters (International Energy Agency, n.d.).As both its economy and population continue to expand, it is critical, as explained by the IPAT framework (Ehrlich & Holdren, 1971), that the country reduce its carbon intensity to achieve its climate targets.Decarbonizing the power sector presents a critical opportunity to support sustained economic growth while also reducing emissions.Energy sector emissions are closely tied to economic growth (GDP) in Indonesia, primarily due to the presence of manufacturing and other heavy industries.With electricity demand projected to increase fivefold from 2020 levels by 2050 (Diyono, et al., 2023), it is imperative to align economic development with climate commitments.This commentary uses the IPAT framework to analyze how Indonesia's population, affluence, and technology impact emissions in the power sector, highlighting the correlation between rising emissions from electricity production and economic development.In applying the IPAT framework, it is only fair to start the analysis with Indonesia's population.The most recent data suggests that 99.4% of the population has access to electricity (World Bank, n.d.-b).Although such a large energy-consuming population inevitably has an impact on greenhouse gas emissions, the population growth rate peaked in 1964 and has since been declining on average (World Bank, n.d-a).Between 1970 and 2023, the population grew roughly by 150% (i.e., 2.5 times larger), while total emissions increased by over 482% (Figure