Forestry, Land-Use Change, and Canada’s Carbon Trajectory: An IPAT/Kaya Decomposition

s commitment to its Paris Climate targets was confirmed on record by Prime Minister Mark Carney during the 2025 budget vote.Despite this the road toward meeting these targets remains in question (Curry & Levitz, 2025).While Canada's projections and public accounting of carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions show reductions since the 2015 Paris Climate Summit, the Canadian government's publicly reported accounting omits Land Use, Land Use Change, and Forestry (LULUCF) (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2025).In this analysis, I apply the IPAT/Kaya identity to CO₂ emissions decomposed into population (P),