Japan’s decarbonization pathway: Demographic change and emissions intensity

In the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement, Parties agreed to keep the increase in global average temperature well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the rise to 1.5 °C (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change [UNFCCC], 2015, Article 2).To reach these objectives, Parties further agreed to "reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible and to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century."This balance between greenhouse gas (GHG) emission sources and sinks is commonly referred to as achieving net zero GHG emissions.This commentary examines recent trends in Japan using the IPAT/Kaya framework, and tests whether the post-2015 period reflects a significant shift in Japan's decarbonization trajectory.Japan is the fourth-largest emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) after the United States, China, and Russia.It is responsible for approximately 4.9% of global CO2 emissions, and its per capita emissions are about 9.8 tonnes of CO2.Despite progress in formulating climate policies against global warming in recent years, Japan's commitment to achieving climate neutrality by 2050 remains weak (Sustainable Governance Indicators [SGI], 2023).In 2021, then-Prime Minister Suga Yoshihide announced a target to reduce GHG emissions by 46% by 2030 compared to 2013 levels and to reach carbon neutrality by 2050-a considerable increase from Japan's previous target of a 26% reduction by 2030 (Japan Times, 2021; McKinsey, 2021).