Saudi Arabia’s Greenhouse Gas Trajectory: Energy Transition and Kaya Decomposition

Saudi Arabia's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reveal the dual pressures of economic growth and energy dependence.Between 1997 and 2023, the country's emissions trajectory illustrates both rapid expansion and early policy reform.This commentary applies the Kaya identity (E = P × A × T).Within the Kaya identity, affluence (A) represents GDP per capita, population (P) represents total population, and technology (T) represents carbon intensity (emissions per unit of GDP).The year 2015 marks a turning point associated with the Paris Agreement and the launch of Vision 2030, a framework that integrates sustainability, diversification, and energy efficiency into national policy (Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2016; World Bank, 2025).Data were sourced from the World Bank's World Development Indicators (2025).Total GHG emissions excluding LULUCF, (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), population (SP.POP.TOTL), and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.KN) were used to construct GDP (population × GDP per capita) and derive carbon intensity (defined as emissions per unit of GDP).Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR) were calculated for pre-Paris (1997 to 2014) and post-Paris (2015 to 2023) Agreement periods to examine the effects of policy changes.Cross-checking with Our World in Data (2025) confirmed consistent emission patterns.