China’s Economic Expansion and CO₂ Emissions: An IPAT Framework Analysis

The IPAT equation, expressed as Impact = Population × Affluence × Technology, is a useful framework for understanding how human activity drives environmental pressures.When applied to China, the model illustrates how demographic shifts, rapid economic growth, and technological advancements have impacted the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the past two decades.As the world's largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China's emissions trajectory is central to global climate action and sustainable development (Wang et al., 2021).In 2022, China released approximately 11.5 billion metric tons of CO₂, accounting for about 30% of global emissions (Climate Watch, 2023).While China leads in total emissions, its per capita emissions remain lower than those of the United States.Between 2000 and 2020, China's population grew from approximately 1.26 billion to 1.41 billion (World Bank, 2023).However, population growth has slowed sharply in recent years due to the long-term effects of the one-child policy, declining fertility rates, and rapid urbanisation (United Nations, 2023; World Bank, 2023).By 2022, population growth had largely stalled, with early signs of population decline beginning to emerge (National Bureau of Statistics of China, 2023).This slowing demographic growth in China has eased some of the upward pressure on emissions, while Author Kikelomo Olanipekun's academic and professional journey began with a background in Agricultural Economics and early work experience as an agronomist.Through her work in agricultural systems, she developed firsthand insight into how land, people, and policy shape one another.Those years working closely with farmers and agricultural systems sparked a deeper curiosity about sustainability, resource management, and the economic forces that influence who thrives and who struggles within rural and agricultural contexts.This intellectual curiosity eventually led her to Thompson Rivers University, where she is currently studying Environmental Economics and Management.Today, she brings practical agricultural experience and analytical training to explore how communities can transition toward