Agricultural Total Factor Productivity in Türkiye: An ARDL Analysis of Macro-Institutional Drivers

This study examines the determinants of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) in Türkiye over the period 1991–2022 using the ARDL approach. The analysis incorporates agricultural credit, agricultural CO₂ emissions, human capital (average years of schooling), urbanization, and agricultural value added as explanatory variables. The Bounds test confirms the existence of a cointegration relationship among the variables. The long-run ARDL model results show that agricultural credit and urbanization have negative effects on TFP, while human capital and agricultural value added contribute positively. These signs are also confirmed by the short-run ARDL model. The empirical results indicate that agricultural CO₂ emissions are insignificant in the long run but exert a negative short-run effect, reflecting temporary stress and inefficiencies. Overall, the study provides important policy insights, emphasizing the need for financial reforms, human capital development, rural revitalization, value-chain strengthening, and climate-smart practices to sustain agricultural productivity growth.