Pengaruh LL, TK, dan CH terhadap Produksi Kopi di SUMSEL Tahun 2010-2024

Abstract. The coffee plantation sector plays a strategic role in Indonesia’s economy, particularly in South Sumatra Province as a major production center. However, coffee production experiences fluctuations influenced by both structural and natural factors, including land area, labor, and rainfall. This study aims to analyze the effects of these three factors on coffee production in South Sumatra Province during the period 2010–2024. The research employs a quantitative approach with a descriptive design and uses annual time series secondary data obtained from official publications of the Central Bureau of Statistics and related government institutions. Data were analyzed using multiple linear regression with the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method, supported by classical assumption tests and statistical tests (t-test, F-test, and coefficient of determination) using EViews 12 software. The results indicate that land area has a positive and significant effect on coffee production, labor has a negative and significant effect, and rainfall has a negative effect on coffee production. The model explains 44.15% of the variation in coffee production, while the remaining variation is influenced by other factors outside the model. The study concludes that coffee production is shaped by the interaction between structural factors and climatic conditions, implying that policy directions should focus on land protection, labor productivity improvement, and climate risk mitigation. Abstrak. Sektor perkebunan kopi memiliki peran strategis dalam perekonomian nasional, khususnya di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan sebagai sentra produksi utama. Namun, produksi kopi menghadapi fluktuasi yang dipengaruhi oleh faktor struktural dan alamiah, seperti luas lahan, tenaga kerja, dan curah hujan. Penelitian ini bertujuan menganalisis pengaruh ketiga faktor tersebut terhadap produksi kopi di Provinsi Sumatera Selatan periode 2010–2024. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan desain deskriptif dan memanfaatkan data sekunder time series tahunan yang diperoleh dari publikasi resmi Badan Pusat Statistik dan instansi terkait. Data dianalisis menggunakan regresi linier berganda metode Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) dengan bantuan perangkat lunak EViews 12, disertai uji asumsi klasik dan uji statistik (uji t, uji F, dan koefisien determinasi). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa luas lahan berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap produksi kopi, tenaga kerja berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan, serta curah hujan berpengaruh negatif terhadap produksi kopi. Model mampu menjelaskan 44,15% variasi produksi kopi, sedangkan sisanya dipengaruhi faktor lain di luar model. Penelitian ini menyimpulkan bahwa produksi kopi dipengaruhi oleh interaksi faktor struktural dan iklim, sehingga kebijakan perlu diarahkan pada perlindungan lahan, peningkatan efisiensi tenaga kerja, serta mitigasi risiko iklim.