Spatial and Multilevel Analysis of Grid Electricity Availability in Somaliland using SIHBS 2023

This study examines the spatial and multilevel analysis of grid electricity availability in Somaliland, a setting characterized by regional disparities in electricity access.Using a quantitative cross-sectional design, the analysis draws on data from the 2023 Somaliland Integrated Household Budget Survey (SIHBS), encompassing 2,703 households.Spatial statistical techniques including Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi* hot spot analysis, are combined with multilevel logistic regression to identify the factors associated with access to reliable 24-hour grid electricity.The spatial analysis reveals a east-west divide in electricity availability.Statistically significant clusters of high access ("hot spots") are concentrated in the western regions of Awdal and Maroodi Jeex, while clusters of low access ("cold spots") are predominantly located in the eastern regions of Sanaag and Sool.These spatial disparities are further substantiated by the multilevel regression results.Once community-level clustering is accounted for, household-level socioeconomic characteristics do not emerge as significant predictors of electricity access.Instead, access is overwhelmingly shaped by community-level determinants, with urban residence and administrative region identified as the only statistically significant predictors.This finding is strongly reinforced by an exceptionally high intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) of 0.951, indicating that approximately 95% of the variation in access to reliable electricity is attributable to differences between communities rather than differences among households within the same community.Collectively, these results demonstrate that electricity access in Somaliland is fundamentally a supply-side phenomenon, driven by infrastructure placement and geographic factors, rather than a demand-side outcome determined by household economic characteristics.The study provides robust, spatially explicit evidence with direct policy relevance for achieving Sustainable Development Goal 7. It underscores the urgency of geographically targeted investments in underserved "cold spot" regions and the development of comprehensive rural electrification strategies to address entrenched regional inequalities in energy access across Somaliland.