The Impact of Carbon Trading Policies on Technological Innovation in Chemical Enterprises

As a pivotal market-based environmental instrument,carbon trading policy plays a significant role in driving the green transformation of the chemical industry.Grounded in New Institutional Economics,the Porter Hypothesis,and Decoupling Theory,this study utilizes a multi-period difference-in-differences(DID)model and panel data from 308 listed chemical firms (2009-2023)to evaluate the policy's causal effect on technological innovation.The results indicate that the policy raises the overall level of technological innovation by 13.5%on average;however,this effect is entirely driven by non-state-owned enterprises(non-SOEs),with no significant impact observed in state-owned firms(SOEs).Further mechanism analysis reveals that non-SOEs respond to the policy mainly through cost constraints and market incentives,whereas SOEs tend to rely on purchasing quotas,which suppresses their innovation motivation.Moreover,the increase in institutional shareholding is identified as a key channel through which the policy spurs innovation in non-SOEs.The application of computational methods in this study also enhances the accuracy and robustness of the empirical evaluation.Based on these findings,policy recommendations are proposed,including optimizing quota allocation mechanisms,linking emission-innovation performance with subsidy incentives for SOEs,and establishing technology sharing platforms to support non-SOEs.