The Impact of Global Supply Chain Restructuring on Foreign Investment Decisions in China’s Logistics and Manufacturing Industries

This article focuses on the internal driving factors and mechanism of action of foreign-funded enterprises' investment decisions in China's logistics and manufacturing industries under the background of global supply chain reorganization.To investigate the impact of supply chain restructuring on foreign direct investment (FDI) decisions amid global supply chain realignment, this study employs multiple regression analysis to construct baseline and interaction models using 113,097 observations from the Kaggle supply chain dataset (covering 94 countries).Results indicate that supply chain diversification exerts a significant negative impact on FDI, with coefficients ranging from -542.93 to -560.82;Geopolitical risk exhibits a significant positive correlation with FDI, with coefficients ranging from 96.63 to 106.48; the impact of supply chain restructuring on FDI depends on the risk environment, with an interaction coefficient of -37.44 with geopolitical risk, indicating that high risk amplifies the negative effects of restructuring; the Logistics Performance Index has a significantly negative impact on FDI, contrary to expectations.The model exhibits good fit, with an R² of 0.634 for the interaction model.This study reveals the conditional mechanism through which supply chain restructuring influences foreign investment, providing empirical evidence and differentiated recommendations for policymakers to optimize supply chain policies and for enterprises to formulate supply chain strategies and investment decisions.