Agricultural vulnerability to cyclones in coastal West Bengal

Coastal West Bengal, a heavily populated agricultural center dependent on fertile deltaic plains, confronts increasing cyclone hazards that jeopardize livelihoods and food security. This research assesses agricultural susceptibility to cyclones in Purba Medinipur district through a multi-dimensional framework that incorporates exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Analysis of 31 years (1991–2022) of cyclone track data from the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre involved assessing cyclone frequency using the Cox-Stuart test and evaluating intensity through Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Power Dissipation Index (PDI). Although the frequency of yearly cyclones has diminished, the intensity during the pre-monsoon period has exhibited an upward tendency, in contrast to the decreased severity observed in the post-monsoon phase. Vulnerability was assessed using 12 factors, such as elevation, slope, cropping system, literacy rates, and population density. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) identified literacy rate, slope, and coastline proximity as the most significant determinants. The results indicated that Nandigram-I, Khejuri-II, and Ramnagar-I are significantly vulnerable due to their low elevation, susceptibility to storm surges, and reliance on monocropping during the cyclone season (July–November), exacerbated by low literacy rates. In contrast, Contai-III and Ramnagar-II shown resilience due to elevated literacy rates and diverse agriculture. This study demonstrates that agricultural vulnerability arises not only from hazard exposure but also from socio-agricultural characteristics, notably single crop dependency and educational deficiencies. Consequently, it is advisable to implement policy integration of literacy initiatives, crop diversification (such as triple-cropping systems), and elevation-based land-use planning to alleviate cyclone effects on coastal agriculture.