Effective Drivers of Hijab and Clothing in the Islamic Republic of Iran: A Futures Studies Approach

Hijab and clothing can be considered one of the most significant identity and cultural components of Islamic Iran—an element that, whether voluntarily or involuntarily, has become a fundamental pillar in social structuring, with the authentic Iranian-Islamic identity being intrinsically tied to it. The complexity of this issue, along with its theoretical and executive sensitivities, has rendered it a persistent challenge in the policymaking domain. In the present study, which has been defined with a futures studies–policy making approach using the MICMAC (Impact Matrix Cross-Reference Multiplication Applied to a Classification) method, 60 driving forces were initially identified through in-depth interviews. After necessary assessments, these were reduced to 19. The MICMAC software, which was employed to analyze and evaluate the reciprocal relationships of these drivers, identified variables such as media and social networks, Western values, and the media representation of law enforcement actions against unveiled individuals as key and influential factors that play a fundamental role in shaping the overall system. Additionally, variables such as the enforcement of hijab laws and tolerance between supporters and opponents of hijab were identified as dependent variables. Intermediary variables, such as social monitoring and the practice of enjoining good and forbidding evil, were recognized as bridging factors between influential and dependent variables, playing a crucial role in the system’s dynamics. The research findings indicate systemic instability, revealing that a significant number of variables experience a dual-state condition. Based on the study’s findings, several policy recommendations can be made, including: Strengthening the management of media and social networks, Planning to reduce the influence of Western values, Revising enforcement mechanisms of hijab laws, Enhancing social monitoring and reinforcing the practice of enjoining good and forbidding evil, Establishing appropriate family and educational models, Utilizing modern technologies to promote the culture of hijab, Reducing social tensions through the promotion of tolerance, Encouraging culturally appropriate clothing models. The findings highlight the need for a multi-dimensional, adaptive policy approach to effectively address the complexities surrounding hijab and its role in shaping Iranian-Islamic identity.