Analysis of the contribution of agriculture to Nigeria’s economic growth (1981-2024)

This study examined the contribution of agriculture to Nigeria’s economic growth from 1981 to 2024, using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. Descriptive analysis revealed that crop production dominated agricultural contributions, averaging $8,073.07 billion annually, followed by livestock ($746.75 billion), fisheries ($189.18 billion), and forestry ($116.82 billion). Trends indicated steady growth in crop and livestock production, fluctuating growth in fisheries and modest increases in forestry, reflecting sector-specific challenges. Stationarity tests confirmed that all variables were integrated of order one, I(1), while Johansen cointegration tests indicated three long-run equilibrium relationships among GDP and the agricultural sub-sectors. Long-run ARDL estimates showed that crop production (coefficient = 0.343, p = 0.055) and fisheries (coefficient = 0.124, p = 0.098) significantly contributed to economic growth, while livestock (coefficient = 0.254, p = 0.606) and forestry (coefficient = 0.293, p = 0.303) were not significant. In the short run, GDP (coefficient = 0.286, t = 2.06) and forestry output (coefficient = -0.201, t = -2.06) significantly influenced growth, with the error correction term (-0.383) indicating rapid adjustment to long-run equilibrium. The study recommends investment in modern farming technologies, fisheries support, strengthening livestock and forestry, resilience policies, and consistent government investment to sustain agricultural contributions to Nigeria’s economic growth.