WINE IMPORT IN THE CONTEXT OF TRANSFORMING GLOBAL CONSUMPTION

Global wine consumption has declined since 2018, while imports have reshaped who drinks what. The study evaluates structural shifts between wine-self-sufficient countries and import-reliant markets. We aim to identify drivers of import share, map consumption–production dynamics, and project trends to 2030. We compiled multi-source statistics (OIV, WTO, World Bank, ITC, GTA) for 2000–2023. Countries consuming ≥0.5% of global volume in 2023 were grouped as selfsufficient (n=12) or import-reliant (n=15). We analysed multi-year averages, per-capita use, import price/value, and performed Pearson correlations. A sensitive-interval (2020–2022) trend model was extrapolated to 2030 for consumption and imports. We also assessed tariff and non-tariff regimes, logistics factors, and producer support policies. Production exceeded consumption annually, cumulating ~717 mhl surplus since 2000. Since 2018, global consumption fell ≈1.75%/year; imports dropped in 2022–2023 despite record 2022 values. The import share of consumption rose to ~45% by 2023, then dipped with shocks and rising costs. Self-sufficient countries produced ~78% yet consumed ~40% in 2023, importing ~16% of what they drink. Import-reliant countries consumed ~45% and accounted for ~66% of import volume and ~68% of value. In group 1, substitutes, health trends, and quality-driven prices depress per-capita consumption. In group 2, broader choice and income effects lift per-capita use, but growth is volatile (e.g., PRC retrenchment). Non-tariff measures proliferated while tariffs are mostly nuisance-level; demand is the binding constraint. Forecasts indicate average 2010–2020-level imports through 2030, with marginal gains in group 1. Group 2 shows mild import declines; global import share is projected near ~42%, akin to the early-2010s. Strategically, exporters should target group-2 markets with low wine shares and rising per-capita potential. Absent demand renewal, overproduction and softer imports will continue to weigh on the sector.