Integrating climate variability, crop responses, and farmer perceptions to assess agricultural vulnerability in agro-climatic zones of Uttar Pradesh, India

The rural economy in India mainly depends on agricultural productivity, which is now under great threat from climate change. The present study evaluates the variation in climatic conditions, crop yield responses, understanding of farmer’s perception and adaptive capacity along the nine agro-climatic zones (Western Plain Zone, Mid-Western Plain Zone, South-Western Semi-Arid Zone, Central Plain Zone, Bundelkhand Zone, North-Eastern Plain Zone, Eastern Plain Zone, Tarai and Bhabhar Zone, and Vindhyan Zone) of Uttar Pradesh, India. Data such as long-term climate data (1985–2024), agricultural statistics, geospatial analysis, and household survey data were evaluated to understand the spatial patterns of temperature and rainfall variability and their agricultural impacts. A consistent increase in temperature was observed across all agro-climatic zones, with strong warming in the western and semi-arid regions. Significant variation in rainfall patterns was observed with increased irregularity. Variation in rainfall was found as a major cause of yield loss (r = 0.972, p < 0.001). Approximately 5-7% loss in average crop yield was observed across climatic zone with substantial rainfall. However, significant loss in crop yields (~14%) was observed in western plain zone. It was observed that farmers' perceptions closely aligned with climatic variations, with over 85% of respondents reporting the impact of climate change. Approximately 44-67% of farmers reported a decline in crop yield despite crop adjustments, confirming the limits to autonomous adaptation. Further, socio-economic results showed a dominance of mall and marginal farmers, with education-driven livelihood diversification, livestock integration, and forest resource use enhancing adaptive capacity. The present study highlighted the need for zone-specific strategies to overcome challenges posed by changing climatic conditions.