Air Temperature Changes in the Azov–Black Sea Region in 1940–2099 according to Observations, Reanalyses, and CMIP6 Models

Based on the data of weather stations, reanalyses, and CMIP6 models, a study of surface air temperature (SAT) changes in the Azov–Black Sea region has been performed. It has been shown that according to the ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, a slight increase in SAT (0.13 $$\pm$$ 0.11°C/10 years) was observed in the study region in 1940–1981, and in 1982–2023, a rapid warming began (0.57 $$\pm$$ 0.06°C/10 years). An ensemble of 33 CMIP6 models reproduces these features and demonstrates a further increase in SAT in the entire Azov–Black Sea region throughout the 21st century under any of the considered SSP scenarios, taking into account the inter-model spread. For example, between 1994–2023 and 2070–2099, the increase in the average SAT of the region will be from 1.5 $$\pm$$ 0.6 to 4.3 $$\pm$$ 0.9°C for different greenhouse gas emission scenarios SSPs. At the same time, the increase in SAT is unevenly distributed over the study region: it is more pronounced on land (including coastal areas) and less pronounced in the central part of the Black Sea.