Methodological recommendations for forecasting food crises in Ukraine

The Methodological Recommendations for Forecasting Food Crises in Ukraine were developed to create a tool for early detection of risks of instability in the food system based on business indicators. The Methodological Recommendations propose an integrated model for assessing the state of food markets, which combines data from the Business Activity Survey of Enterprises (BAS), multifactor analysis, an indicator approach and a system of threshold values ​​for determining risk zones. The Methodological Recommendations provide an opportunity to promptly identify changes in production, logistics, financial and market characteristics that may cause product shortages, price volatility or disruption of supply chains. The results of their application can be used by state authorities, analytical centers and agri-food market entities to improve the validity of management decisions, plan preventive measures and form strategic policies in the field of food security.