Reserved yet Influential: China’s Role in COP30

Key takeaways - After submitting its updated National Determined Contribution (NDC) with only modest improvements, China’s role at recent COP30 was ambivalent: restrained in formal negotiations, yet highly active in the non-negotiation space. - China’s active engagement in promoting the just transition mechanism at the COP was tempered by its strong reluctance to accept any commitments or references to a transition away from fossil-fuels and climate funding. According to its own reporting, China has made significant contributions to climate finance, though transparency remains limited. - In the non-negotiation space, China focused on showcasing its implementation efforts including its achievements within South–South cooperation, and its major advances in green technology — developments that non-Chinese visitors often used as grounds to portray China as a global climate leader. China, however, remained distinctly cautious and reportedly pushed back against being labeled a leader in climate policy. - China’s civil sector contribution to COP was limited, with NGOs aligning closely with government priorities and exerting far less pressure on China’s climate commitments than civil sectors elsewhere. The Chinese business sector, on the other hand, was highly active with many technology companies attending COP to promote their technological innovations. - While the EU continues to rely primarily on standards and regulatory approaches in its external climate policy and fails to engage more effectively with the priorities and perceptions of Global South partners, China’s popularity appeared to increase with the Chinese pavilion being heavily visited throughout the conference. Furthermore, China’s restrained pledges at COP such as in the topics of fossil fuel transition or contribution to financing did not seem to diminish its positive standing among Global South countries.