Logistics Infrastructure and Regional Economic Growth: A Causal Evaluation of Coordination Policies in China's Urban Agglomerations

This study provides a causal estimate of the impact of logistics-focused coordination policies on regional economic growth in China. While the role of logistics in development is widely acknowledged, the existing literature offers limited causal evidence on the economic mechanisms through which policy-driven coordination unlocks growth. Addressing this gap, we employ a quasi-experimental design, treating the staggered implementation of coordination policies in three major urban agglomerations—Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Pearl River Delta (PRD)—as natural experiments. We estimate a heterogeneous Difference-in-Differences (DID) model complemented by an instrumental variable (IV) approach to address endogeneity. Our analysis, structured around supply-side production scale, spatial coordination efficiency, and demand-side market intensity, reveals significant positive effects. However, we find heterogeneous treatment effects: the growth mechanism is infrastructure-driven in BTH, market-integration-led in YRD, and reliant on cross-border cooperation in PRD. By quantifying these distinct causal pathways, this research contributes to the discourses in economic geography and regional policy, underscoring the importance of regionally-tailored economic strategies for achieving efficient resource allocation and sustainable development.