Ocean climate variability and travel surveillance data inform understanding of global dengue dynamics

Oceanic-atmospheric interactions significantly influence regional rainfall and vector-borne disease dynamics. Travel-related dengue cases serve as effective sentinels for dengue transmission, yet the impact of sea surface temperature (SST) variability on their occurrence remains under explored. Here we analyzed 2000–2019 GeoSentinel traveler dengue data alongside ERA5 SST and precipitation anomalies to assess correlations across global ocean basins. We identified that dominant SST variability modes in the Indian, Pacific, and Atlantic Oceans are remotely associated with dengue incidence in regions exhibiting strong seasonal precipitation patterns. These SST-driven rainfall variations likely modulate vector ecology and dengue transmission. Incorporating SST and precipitation anomalies into dengue forecasting models could enhance outbreak prediction and public health preparedness, providing a valuable adjunct to existing tools.