Water-efficient Indian rice cultivation boosts exports despite high carbon footprints

Most agricultural sustainability efforts adopt a national-scale view, masking regional trade-offs between crop yields and environmental footprints. To measure trade-offs, satellite remote sensing based life cycle assessment of rice agroecosystems across India from 2004 to 2021 was conducted revealing pivotal shifts of four cultivation typologies, termed as unsustainable, conventional, productive, and sustainable. Over the period, sustainable and productive rice areas expanded by ~32% and ~40% respectively, while unsustainable and conventional areas declined by ~68% and ~60%. Paradoxically, the most water-efficient sustainable typology at ~339.9 mm/ha generated the largest carbon footprint at ~2066.6 kg C/ha due to residue burning. We calculate that a complete transition to sustainable cultivation could boost India’s export revenues by 60% to USD 15.59 billion, while shifting to unsustainable cultivation could halve export revenues. Projections to 2031 show both sustainable and unsustainable typologies becoming dominant, covering 58% of India’s rice areas, highlighting the need for region-specific policies.