Understanding Polarization via the Relationship between Political Attitudes and Partisan Strength

Political polarization poses a growing threat to democratic governance. We suggest that one overlooked driver of polarization lies in the dynamic relationship between political attitudes and partisan strength. People's attitudes on specific issues and partisan strength are often thought to move together. However, examining the relationship between attitudes and partisan strength among U.S. partisans reveals that they may diverge over time, with attitudes moving toward extremity ahead of partisan strength. This pattern is particularly clear among self-identified moderate partisans, who increasingly adopt extreme attitudes over time while initially still identifying as moderate partisans. We call this phenomenon attitude acrophily (attraction to extreme attitudes): the tendency to be attracted to extreme political attitudes. Using American National Election Studies data, we show that by 2020, moderate Democrats and Republicans were more likely to report extreme attitudes on health insurance, guaranteed jobs, and aid to Black Americans than to report moderate attitudes. Furthermore, panel data analysis, tracking the same partisans over eight years, shows that the rise in attitude acrophily is not the result of generational replacement. We also show that attitude acrophily has important implications, as moderate partisans with extreme attitudes are more likely to report greater partisan strength over time. This framework suggests that polarization evolves first through shifts in attitudes and then in partisan strength. Understanding this sequence points to pathways for preventing further escalation.