When and why causal beliefs predict policy support

The relationship between beliefs about the causes of a policy-relevant issue (causal beliefs) and attitudes towards that policy (policy support) is complicated, with contradictory empirical results. The current research offers an explanation for this: causal beliefs only predict policy attitudes when they are specific and correspond with the policy. We test this across 6 studies (N = 10,728). In Study 1 we test whether specific-corresponding beliefs are stronger correlates of policy support than other causal beliefs. In Study 2 we test whether communicating specific-corresponding causal evidence can increase policy support. In Study 3 we analyse three existing datasets to identify a psychological mechanism: perceived policy effectiveness. Studies 4a-b extend the causal evidence from Study 2 and the mechanism from Study 3. Study 5 involves a meta-analysis of the experimental studies. This provides support for our theory: specific-corresponding causal beliefs affect policy support, but general and non-corresponding causal beliefs do not.