The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on international researcher mobility

The COVID-19 pandemic imposed unprecedented constraints on international mobility, yet its consequences for the global circulation of scientific talent remain poorly quantified. Using longitudinal bibliometric data from Scopus covering more than 32 million researchers, this study provides a global assessment of how the pandemic disrupted international researcher mobility between 2020 and 2022. Pandemic-related “lost mobility” is estimated using counterfactual trend extrapolation based on pre-2020 trajectories. International researcher mobility fell short of expected levels by an estimated 14,703 movements (±2,791), corresponding to a 3.7% loss. Although observed mobility rebounded by 2022, it remained below counterfactual trends. Effects varied widely across countries and were asymmetric: losses in incoming mobility were strongly associated with destination-country COVID-19 policy stringency and political regime type, whereas outgoing mobility showed no comparable relationship. These findings underscore the institutionally mediated nature of scientific mobility during global crises.