Fertility Trends Across Migrant Generations Reexamined: Insights from Finnish Register Data

Migrant descendants in several European countries show increasingly lower fertility rates, sometimes even lower than native-born peers—a pattern defying conventional expectations that migrant descendants either maintain origin-country patterns or converge toward host-country norms. Using Finnish register data (1985–1994 birth cohorts), we analyze first-birth timing across six ancestry groups spanning three migrant generations: 1.5 (migrated as children), second (born in Finland to immigrant parents), and 2.5 (children of mixed couples). Entry into parenthood occurs progressively later across these generations, with the 2.5 generation surpassing even native Finns in postponement. We tested four mechanisms—urban residence, educational investment, economic instability, and barriers to union formation—but none explained the delay. Our study contributes to the literature by, first, underscoring the limitations of the convergence narrative and, second, by drawing attention to the 2.5G as a distinct group whose reproductive behavior requires further conceptual and empirical attention.