Should Moving to the Middle Win Candidates Votes? It Depends Where Voters Are

Research finds that moderation only weakly improves candidate vote shares, which some argue indicates voters fail to vote on issues. We argue these findings can instead reflect two features of public opinion: party positions are popular on some issues, and public opinion is multidimensional. We show why, given these features, candidates’ electoral returns from moving towards the other party’s positions can be small even if all voters vote on issues. We illustrate this using a conjoint experiment (N = 6, 000) with presidential candidates and randomized policy positions. Movement towards the other party improves vote shares when party positions are unpopular, but produces null or negative effects when party positions command majority support. Candidates moving towards the other party win some voters but lose others who preferred their party’s position—producing small aggregate effects but consistent with widespread issue-based voting. Small measured effects of moderation may understate how many voters vote on issues.