Who Purchases Alternative Meat? Product-Specific Consumer Decision Structures in the United States and Japan

Amid growing concerns about the environmental and ethical impacts of excessive meat consumption, alternative meats have attracted attention as more sustainable options. However, their market share remains limited, and little is known about how nonlinear combinations of consumer attitudes shape purchase intentions across different alternative meat types. This study investigates consumer segments and decision structures underlying purchase intentions for alternative meats in the United States and Japan. Using data from an online survey, we applied random forest models to identify key predictors of purchase intention, followed by decision tree analyses to uncover interpretable, nonlinear decision structures. Taste evaluation emerged as the primary predictor for plant-based meat; however, even among those with lower taste evaluations, purchase intention was elevated among individuals concerned with animal welfare and health. For cultured meat, perceptions of healthfulness and concern for animal welfare were important drivers, while in the United States, purity-based moral concerns acted as a barrier to purchase. Insect-based meat exhibited consistently low purchase intention in both countries, with favorable attitudes emerging only under specific conditions of perceptions and values. These findings underscore the importance of product-specific and culturally sensitive communication strategies, and demonstrate the value of accounting for nonlinear interactions among consumer attitudes when designing interventions to accelerate the diffusion of alternative meats.