One Class, Many Trajectories? On the Similarity of Wage Mobility Within Occupation-Based Classes

Do occupation-based classes shape intragenerational wage mobility? To address this, we draw on employment relationship theory and a trajectory variability perspective to contend that within-class trajectory similarity varies across classes. We employ mixed-effects models with heterogeneous variance components using data from the German Socio-Economic Panel. We find that class outperforms occupational and post-class accounts at predicting typical wage trajectories. Crucially, the degree of trajectory similarity varies across classes. Salaried workers have the least similar trajectories in terms of entry wages and wage growth. Wage fluctuations are most pronounced for routine workers. Intragenerational class mobility is associated with wage levels but does not increase dissimilarity in wage trajectories. While class patterns in variability are similar for women and men, women experience greater growth and fluctuation variability than men. Our results suggest a mobility regime in which wage trajectories are grouped into large class categories but still exhibit significant differences in similarity.