When War Hits Home: The Middle East Conflict and the Polarized yet Contingent Nature of Prejudice

In polarized societies, basic questions about what constitutes prejudice can become deeply contested. After Hamas’s October 7 attack and Israel’s subsequent invasion of Gaza, discourse about the conflict has been marked by disputes over antisemitism. We investigate what are and what shapes American beliefs about antisemitism. Analysis of over one million Google restaurant reviews shows that ratings of Israeli restaurants declined as Israel’s ground war intensified. We then use this finding to interrogate American perceptions of antisemitism. A nationally representative survey experiment (N = 3, 200) finds that perceptions of whether such behavior is antisemitic are deeply polarized along partisan lines—but largely unaffected by media framing of the conflict. A follow-up survey (N = 3, 000) conducted unexpectedly during Israel’s strike on Iran, shows that Americans surveyed after the attack were less likely to interpret controversial behavior and speech as antisemitic. Our findings reveal the polarized and contingent nature of antisemitic beliefs.