From Ally to Ambiguity: India-Bangladesh Relations at a Crossroads

Marked by political interregna, social mobilization, and civil rights movements; contemporary South Asian geopolitics have significantly challenged the conventional understandings of sub-regional politics. This article examines the changing contours of India–Bangladesh relations following the ouster of the Hasina regime in 2024. Employing three interlinked levels of analysis (a) India’s coercive economic policies, border practices, and increasingly ambiguous connectivity commitments; (b) Bangladesh’s domestic political reordering; and (c) Dhaka’s strategic realignment toward Pakistan and China. The article argues that the aftermath of July revolution might not only reshape India–Bangladesh relations in days to come but will also contribute to a structural recalibration of sub-regional power dynamics, unless India seeks to recalibrate its westward neighbourhood strategy.