Global Threat Assessment 2026

The Global Threat Assessment 2026 examines the evolving global security environment shaped by superpower rivalry, geopolitical fragmentation, and the persistence of terrorism and extremism. While attacks in Western states will remain limited, the vast majority of terrorist violence will occur in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia, driven primarily by Islamic State and Al Qaeda affiliates and state-sponsored militant proxies. The assessment highlights the growing convergence of state and non-state actors, the rise of hybrid and irregular warfare, and the expanding role of digital platforms in radicalisation, recruitment, and operations. It concludes that terrorism will remain the preeminent national security threat in 2026, requiring preventive counterterrorism strategies, stronger regulation of physical and digital spaces, and sustained international cooperation across ideological divides.