Supply-demand matching of wind and solar energy systems on the Tibetan Plateau under climate change scenarios

Climate change can influence both energy supply and demand. As a critical strategic resource reserve for China, the Tibetan Plateau lacks comprehensive research on the future alignment of electricity supply and demand from wind and solar (W&S) energy systems under climate change scenarios. This study develops a supply-demand matching (SDM) index using outputs from 12 global climate models and evaluates the independent and combined effects of climate change on supply, demand, and changes in SDM (∆SDM) through controlled experiments. The results indicate that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, W&S system supply, driven by shifts in climate mean states, shows a declining trend. For wind energy systems, ∆SDM decreases by an average of -2.95%, driven by the combined effects of supply and demand changes. Conversely, for solar energy systems, ∆SDM increases by an average of 2.02%, primarily due to a reduction in future heating demand, which offsets the decline in solar energy supply and enhances the supply-demand matching of solar energy systems. This study provides a scientific foundation for the Tibetan Plateau's energy sector to adapt effectively to climate change.