Dynamic evolution and problem identification of agricultural space total factor productivity from the "Greater Food" perspective

Based on the "Greater Food" perspective, this study systematically explores the characteristics of China's agricultural use, which is highly significant for ensuring national food security and optimizing agricultural spatial utilization. By integrating the EBM-GML model, a convergence model, and the spatial mismatch index, this study examines China's agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) from the perspective of the "Greater Food" concept. It analyzes both its dynamic evolution and spatial mismatch patterns, and then identifies associated types of agricultural land use issues. The results indicate that: (1) From 2014 to 2022, China's ATFP showed an overall increasing trend, driven primarily by technical efficiency, and was marked by a pattern of "high in the east, moderate in the center, and low in the west". (2) There was absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence over time, with the central region demonstrating the fastest convergence rate. (3) Chinese provinces have small differences in the spatial mismatch between ATFP and technical efficiency, mainly characterized by low and medium mismatch types, which were primarily distributed in the western region and the central grain-producing areas. Meanwhile, regions with positive mismatch types of ATFP and technological advancement showed an increasing and agglomerating trend. (4) Five problematic region types were identified based on comparisons of total factor productivity, technical efficiency and technological advancement in agricultural space, and corresponding countermeasures are proposed for each type of problematic region. It is suggested to take the "Greater Food" perspective as the guiding principle and formulate differentiated policies for agricultural spatial utilization transformation, based on regional resource endowments and local characteristics.