Ukraine–EU trade under global fluctuations

The practical value of this research lies in highlighting trends in trade relations between Ukraine and the European Union, particularly in the context of geopolitical conflicts and the implemen­tation of European integration principles in the Ukrainian economy. The dynamism of changes in the economy and politics has led to the emergence of new challenges facing Ukraineʼs international trade, necessitating further research. The research is based on the hypothesis that, in the context of geopolitical changes and globalization, Ukraineʼs trade in goods with EU countries is undergoing structural changes, which, in turn, affects the state of the countryʼs economic stability and international partnerships. It is necessary to develop an econo­metric model that reflects the impact of logistics efficiency and the regulatory environment on the state of international trade. To achieve this goal, the methods of theoretical generalization, analysis, and synthesis were used. The results of research by leading scholars are considered to identify the main challen­ges that accompany the process of EU-Ukraine integration in the field of trade and the complicated, unstable conditions of international cooperation. The research applies statistical analysis of trade flows, structural diagnostics of export and import composition, and a multifactor econometric model incorporating GDP, logistics performance, and economic freedom indices. The modelʼs adequacy is confirmed through regression diagnostics and statistical tests. The analysis reveals a reorientation of Ukrainian exports toward agricultural and food products, a decline in metallurgical exports, and growing technological and energy dependence in imports. The econometric model demonstrates high explanatory power (R² = 0.979), confirming the significance of institutional and logistical factors. Comparative advantage calculations identify prio­rity export sectors and underrepresented product groups with development potential. Ukraineʼs trade with the EU is undergoing structural diversification, driven by geopolitical shocks and regulatory shifts. To strengthen resilience and deepen integration, Ukraine must enhance logistics, support priority sectors, and adapt trade policy to reflect national interests within the framework of the Association Agreement