Population mobility and the economic valuation of transport-based activities in Balikpapan Bay: Implications for regional development dynamics

This study investigates population mobility across Balikpapan Bay, Indonesia, with a focus on behavioral dynamics, functional interdependence, and the economic value generated by mobility-dependent activities. Employing a mixed-methods approach that integrates qualitative and quantitative analysis with spatial perspectives, data were collected through field observations, interviews, and document analysis. Findings show that cross-bay mobility operates as an adaptive livelihood strategy driven by economic needs, access to essential services, and the maintenance of social networks. Balikpapan and Penajam Paser Utara function as complementary nodes within an interdependent regional system, challenging conventional origin–destination assumptions in classical migration theory. Despite major infrastructure developments, mobility patterns remain largely unchanged, indicating persistent reliance on maritime routes due to their efficiency and affordability. Economic valuation estimates that cross-bay mobility contributes approximately IDR 286.4 billion annually, underscoring its strategic role in sustaining the local economy and the need for policy frameworks that acknowledge mobility as a productive asset. The study concludes that significant shifts in economic contribution are unlikely unless land-based alternatives become substantially faster, more affordable, and more efficient. Strengthening integrated mobility governance—through multimodal connectivity, harmonized tariff regulation, and livelihood protection for maritime-dependent communities—is recommended to ensure that new capital development does not exacerbate spatial exclusion or inequalities in access across the region.