Chapter 6: The Geopolitical Stakes of Ukraine’s NATO Membership

This paper evaluates the strategic significance of Ukraine’s prospective NATO accession, analysing political, military, economic and demographic factors that shape Kyiv’s bid and its implications for European and transatlantic security. Employing a policy-analytic approach grounded in an expert workshop and documentary evidence, the study frames Ukraine’s accession as a long-term strategic objective for Kyiv and considers a range of conflict and settlement scenarios (prolonged war, spillover, frozen conflict, negotiated armistice). Key findings emphasise Ukraine’s strategic value—size, industrial capacity, critical-resource endowments, large combat-experienced forces and diaspora—while identifying principal obstacles: territorial occupation, domestic reform needs (corruption, interoperability, civilian oversight), allied political divisions, and Russian opposition. The analysis assesses alternative security architectures should NATO membership remain unattainable (EU integration, armed neutrality, European peace guarantors, or limited foreign deployments) and outlines risks for NATO cohesion, regional deterrence and wider great-power dynamics under each scenario. The paper concludes that sustained political, military and economic engagement by Western partners—including defence-industrial cooperation and reform support—is essential to preserve Ukraine’s sovereignty and maximise prospects for eventual Euro-Atlantic integration.