Modeling Mortality Rates Based on the Lee-Carter Model in Golestan Province, Iran: 2011-2028

Background: Reliable information on the causes of death, mortality trends, and their changes is one of the most basic principles of planning, management, and evaluation of health sectors.This study aimed to model mortality rates in Golestan Province, Iran.Methods: This study was based on data available from northern Iran.First, mortality changes were modeled from 2011 to 2018.In the next stage, using the pattern of changes, mortality rates were predicted to 2028 using the Lee-Carter (LC) model.Results: During 2011-2018, 60 082 deaths occurred due to various reasons.The average age of the deceased was 58.92±26.64years.Generally, 43.2% was attributed to women and 56.8% to men.The mortality trend across all age and sex groups during the years 2019-2028 will be downward.As predicted in 2028, the mortality rate in the age group over 80 years reaches from 107.14 to 72.43 in the total population, from 90.12 to 42.11 in men, and from 101.49 to 52.25 in women (per 1000 population).The results of this study showed that the mortality trend in all age and sex groups during 2019-2028 was downward, with a low slope.Conclusion: This study was designed before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and given the changes this pandemic has caused in mortality rates, investigating the trend in mortality during this pandemic is recommended.