The impact of structural shift and reduced preferential mortgage programs on mortgage interest rates in Russian regions

The article shows structural changes in the relationship between the mortgage rate and MIACR (Moscow Interbank Actual Credit Rate), identified in the analysis of the dynamics of weighted average mortgage rates (published on the website of the Bank of Russia) in Russian regions for 2022—2025. The rates of residential mortgage loans and MIACR were multidirectional, and fluctuations in mortgage rates became more frequent. The structural changes are due to the countercyclical policy of the Bank of Russia, the expectations of large banks of a key interest rate reduction, the wide coverage of borrowers with preferential mortgage programs, and refinancing. The spread of mortgage rates among regions has increased due to the heterogeneity of consumers and the uneven presence of regional banks in the regions. The indicated violations of the connection between the mortgage rates and MIACR appeared differently. To account for the heterogeneity, the regions of Russia were divided into 5 main clusters using the K-Means method. A forecast of regional mortgage rates for 2025—2026 has been built for each region separately.