Epidemiological Profile of Cancer Incidence in Brazil and Regions: Estimates for the 2026-2028 Triennium

Introduction: Cancer is one of the major social and economic challenges of the 21st century, with far-reaching repercussions for individuals, families, communities, and health systems. Estimates of new cancer cases are essential to support the formulation of publichealth policies and to guide the appropriate allocation of resources for prevention, early diagnosis, and treatment. Objective: To estimate and describe cancer incidence in Brazil, by geographic region, federative unit, and sex, for the 2026-2028 triennium. Method: Data were obtained from the Mortality Information System and Population-Based Cancer Registries. The number of new cases and their respective incidence rates were estimated using time-linear prediction models or the incidence-to-mortality ratio method. Results: Anaverage of 781,000 new cancer cases per year is expected during the triennium. Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer, 518,000 new cases are projected. Female breast and prostate cancers stand out as the most frequent types, each accounting for approximately 15% of all new occurrences. They are followed by colorectal cancer (10.4%), trachea, bronchus and lung cancer (6.8%), stomach cancer (4.4%), and cervical cancer (3.7%). Conclusion: The cancer incidence estimates confirm the high burden of the disease in Brazil and highlight regional disparities, reflecting a transition between tumors associated with aging and those linked to social vulnerability. The rising incidence of colorectal cancer and the renewed increase in lung cancer underscore the need to strengthen prevention, screening, and cancer registry systems.