THE FORESIGHT TECHNOLOGIES IN ANTI-NARCOTIC PREVENTION: SCENARIO MODELING AND MESO-STRATEGY IN THE KABARDINO-BALKARIA REPUBLIC

The purpose of the study is to determine directions of strategy of intersectoral interaction in preventing drug consumption in the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic based on the Foresight approach and scenario modeling of arising trends in society narcotization. The Foresight methodological tools were used (PESTLE analysis, scenario forecast, drivers and bifurcation points identification, the Popper diamond). The data base for analysis included statistical data from narcologic services, the reports of the WHO, the UNODC, the Main Directorate for Drug Control of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation and expert assessments. The analysis of study results permitted to identify key trends (increase of poly-narcomania, intensification of synthetic drugs, rejuvenation of drug addicts and drug market digitization). The probable and possible scenarios of development such as inertial, optimistic, crisis and innovative ones were determined. The drivers and bifurcation points capable radically change trajectory of drug situation were identified. The necessity of transition from predominantly repressive approach to preventive and rehabilitative one, integration of digital monitoring technologies (WBE, Big Data) and development of individual plan of prevention set-back are substantiated. The conclusions are made that the Foresight analysis in the field of anti-narcotic prevention is efficient tool of proactive risk management that permits to coordinate Federal and regional strategies. For the Kabardino-Balkarian Republic, special importance acquires development of meso-strategy based on intersectoral cooperation, use of ethno-confessional resources and educational and cultural potential. The scenario modeling provides opportunity to be prepared for potential menaces and to develop sustainable trajectory of reducing drug risks and promoting public health by 2030.