VEGETABLE SEED PRODUCTION: STATUS, CHALLENGES, AND AN INNOVATIVE DEVELOPMENT MODEL

Purpose. To conduct a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the vegetable and melon seed production market in Ukraine, identify key destabilizing factors under conditions of martial law and climate change, and substantiate strategic directions for the institutional transformation of the sector to ensure the country’s food independence. Methods. The study employs a systemic approach, mathematical and statistical methods for analyzing time series of production dynamics, an abstract-logical method for generalizing the theoretical foundations of the breeding process, and a comparative analysis method of market conditions. Results. It was established that despite the difficult geopolitical situation, domestic breeding retains significant potential: the State Register of Plant Varieties Suitable for Dissemination in Ukraine includes 2,456 entries, of which 2,049 are vegetable crops, 334 are melon crops, and 73 are minor vegetable crops. Despite the overall predominance of imported varieties and hybrids (domestic breeding accounts for 17%), Ukrainian varieties occupy one third of the market within their segment (32%), which confirms the potential of local breeding programs. The dynamics of the production of higher-generation seeds and the volumes of their sales were analyzed. The main constraining factors of the sector were identified, including high labor intensity, expansion of foreign companies, and the absence of targeted state funding for breeding programs. A negative trend of declining licensing activity was recorded, caused by the labor-intensive and capital-intensive nature of seed production, imperfections in royalty payment mechanisms, and the lack of control over the use of seed for own needs (Farm Saved Seed). The necessity of transitioning to a model of sustainable seed systems based on heterosis breeding and digital traceability of seed circulation was substantiated. Conclusions. It has been proven that stabilization of the sector requires the establishment of regional seed clusters with a closed cycle of production and logistics. The strategic development of seed production should be based on the principles of climate adaptability and institutional transformation, including the digitalization of varietal resource accounting and the harmonization of certification with EU requirements. It is substantiated that only the combination of scientific support from the National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine (NAAS) and investment support through public–private partnership mechanisms will make it possible to minimize import dependence and adapt vegetable production to new climate realities.