Risk Assessment Framework for BOT Projects in Post-War Reconstruction

Driven by an urgent need for systematic risk assessment of Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) projects in Syria's post-war reconstruction context, this research addresses the critical risk factors specific to BOT projects in post-conflict environments, systematically classifies and prioritizes these risks, and develops a framework for effective risk assessment and management. Using a rigorous mixed-methods approach, we developed a comprehensive risk register that identifies and categorizes 48 distinct risks across five major categories: organization/political, financial/economic, environmental/natural, design/implementation/operation, and humanitarian/materials/equipment. The research methodology consisted of questionnaire responses from 161 industry professionals, including government officials and engineering consultants. The collected data were analyzed using SPSS for validation. Both the impact and the probability of each risk were measured on a five-point Likert scale, and a z-test was used to test the hypothesis. The results indicated that organizational and political risks, specifically the imposition of international sanctions and regional tensions, pose the primary threat to BOT project implementation in Syria, while environmental risks were found to be less critical. The developed risk register provides a structured tool for risk assessment and management, incorporating local contextual factors that are often absent in traditional frameworks. For policymakers, investors, and project managers involved in Syria’s post-conflict reconstruction, this research offers practical insights and contributes to a theoretical understanding of BOT projects more generally.