Using Machine-Learning to Triage Canada’s Temporary Resident Visa Applications

This RCIS working paper by Lucia Nalbandian investigates the Canadian government's use of artificial intelligence (AI) to manage migration, specifically focusing on three analytics-based systems implemented by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) to triage Temporary Resident Visa (TRV) applications from China and India. The paper explores the twofold question of what risks the government considered before deploying these automated decision-making systems and whether the safeguards introduced—such as multidisciplinary development teams, expert assessments, and maintaining a "human-in-the-loop"—establish a positive precedent for future technology use in public administration. Through a critical appraisal of these pilot projects, the author examines the efforts to avoid "black-box" algorithms and ensures transparency and accountability in a sector traditionally characterized by nuanced human judgment. Ultimately, the study offers recommendations for monitoring data trends and completing Algorithmic Impact Assessments to ensure that the intentional development of AI in migration management remains ethical and transparent.