The Methodological Approach to Assessing Trends in the Development of the Green Economy of EU Countries

The article is devoted to developing a methodological approach for assessing trends in the development of the green economy of EU countries, which, unlike existing approaches, is based on forming a set of component indicators by extracting general methodological indicators of the conception of sustainable development and performing an integral assessment (overall integral indicator for the period 2018–2024). The strategic outcome of applying this approach is the analysis and assessment of the integral development index of the green economy of EU countries, which forms the basis for modeling strategic trends in the development of the green economy, using methods of cluster, factor, regression, and scenario analyses. The feasibility of creating an integral index as a tool for comprehensively assessing the level and dynamics of the development of the green economy is substantiated, based on the systematic consolidation of economic-resource, environmental, social, institutional, and innovative components. A critical analysis of contemporary international indices and indicator systems used to assess green development has been conducted, revealing their methodological limitations related to the fragmented coverage of components, temporal data inconsistencies, and limited suitability for comparative analysis within the EU. A structure for a composite index has been proposed, based on stepwise normalization of indicators, the formation of sub-indices, and their aggregation using the geometric mean. The methodological approach was tested for European Union countries over the period 2018–2024, which allowed the identification of differences in levels of green economy development and structural changes in the dynamics of its components. The results obtained were used for dynamic analysis, rapid diagnostics, and forecasting trends in green economy development in the medium term. The practical significance of the study lies in the potential application of the proposed methodological approach for the analytical substantiation of managerial decisions and strategic directions for the development of the green economy in EU countries.