The Structural Transformation of the Regional Economies of Prydniprovia: The Impact of the War and Pathways to Economic Reconstruction

The article examines structural changes in the economies of the Prydniprovia regions (Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporizhzhia, Kirovohrad, Poltava, Cherkasy) during the wartime and identifies strategic directions for their post-war reconstruction. The relevance of the study is due to the limited research on the territorial specifics of structural processes within the regions of Ukraine, particularly the dynamics of their adaptation to wartime challenges and their recovery potential. The study is based on official statistical data from 2013–2023 and is carried out in two directions. The first direction involves evaluating each region’s contribution to the structure of the national economy based on indicators such as value added, the number of business entities, employment, and product sales volumes. The second direction analyzes the structure of the economies across four sectors (agriculture, industry, construction, and services) using value-added and employment indicators. The results for the first direction showed that during 2013–2021, the shares of the Prydniprovia regions in nationwide economic indicators did not change significantly. Noticeable shifts occurred after the start of the full-scale war – the Zaporizhzhia region suffered the greatest decline due to territorial losses. Other regions, thanks to agricultural specialization, the resilience of processing industries, and relatively safe locations, either did not significantly change or even increased their contribution to Ukraine’s economy. Analysis of the structures of the regional economies of the Prydniprovia showed that in 2022–2023, losses in the real sector were offset by growth in service sector activity, which proved more adaptable to wartime conditions. Such structural shifts helped mitigate the effects of the war-induced downturn, but do not provide a foundation for a qualitative restructuring of the macroregion’s economy. It is emphasized that economic reconstruction requires moving from compensatory mechanisms to structural reorganization based on a comprehensive approach, which entails new industrialization with advanced resource processing and innovation, development of knowledge-intensive services integrated into production chains, and activation of intersectoral and interregional cooperation to combine agricultural, industrial, and service potentials. Two strategic vectors of regional transformation are allocated as promising: the bioeconomy – based on the development of biotechnology and cross-sector interactions, and the digital – oriented towards implementing digital solutions in production systems and logistics. It is noted that the economic reconstruction of regions requires coordinating state policy across types and levels of governance, developing cluster and network cooperation formats, as well as establishing a stable institutional environment. New innovative and investment opportunities for the progressive transformation of the national economy are linked to joining the EU Green Deal.