The Methodological Aspects of Assessing the Adaptability of the Export-Oriented Development Potential of Ukraine’s Economy

The aim of the article is to develop a comprehensive adaptability indicator designed to show how deeply the export-oriented economy responds to external disturbances, how quickly it returns to the growth trajectory, and whether it is capable of transforming crises into opportunities. As such an indicator, the authors propose an adaptability index of the export-oriented development potential of the economy. The proposed methodological approaches for determining the adaptability index of the export-oriented development potential allow evaluating the national economy’s ability to sustain and expand its potential for export-oriented growth in a turbulent external environment typical of the BANI world. To this end, an approach based on measuring the degree of dependence of the national economic system on global trends and its sensitivity to external shocks is used. The proposed methodology employs a comprehensive approach that combines the assessment of the degree of turbulence in the external global environment, the measurement of the internal vulnerability of the national economic system, the sensitivity of its key macroeconomic indicators to external shocks, the capacity to return to a balanced development trajectory after shocks and crises, as well as consideration of the level of economic complexity as a structural precondition for long-term resilience. The logic behind the construction of the index assumes that the adaptability of export-oriented development potential increases with higher economic resilience and greater structural complexity, and decreases with high internal instability and excessive susceptibility to global shocks. The integrated approach proposed by the authors for determining the level of adaptability of export-oriented development potential enables obtaining a comprehensive, quantitatively measurable characterization of the national economy’s ability to adapt, operate, and develop under conditions of constant and increasing instability.