Assessing inland water resources variability by using satellite data: case study of the Serra del Corvo artificial Lake in Italy

Satellite data provide valuable information on the variations in the surface area of inland waters. These observations are crucial for monitoring remote or poorly instrumented regions and offer complementary insights to in situ measurements. To further assess this capability, we analyzed the temporal variations of Serra del Corvo Lake – located at the border between the Basilicata and Puglia regions in southern Italy – using cloud-free Sentinel-2 imagery acquired from 2015 to 2025. The satellite-derived surface water extent time series were compared with daily in situ measurements of water volume and level, achieving very high correlation (R > 0.98). This strong correlation supported the development of two predictive models, based on both linear and exponential regression method, which demonstrated satisfactory accuracy (R² consistently above 0.8 in both calibration and validation phases). These results highlight the high potential of satellite-based approaches to provide almost independent and reliable information on inland water dynamics.