Potential thermal habitat shifts of reef-associated species in response to projected bottom warming along the US Atlantic Coast

Future ocean conditions will likely alter habitat suitability for many species, potentially resulting in range shifts. Climate models simulate environmental conditions under climate scenarios and serve as a valuable tool for projecting future changes in habitat suitability. Here, we use ocean bottom temperature patterns from a multi-model ensemble mean of 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models for ‘low’, ‘medium’, and ‘high’ emission socioeconomic climate scenarios (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) to estimate changes in thermal habitat availability for 6 commercially important fish species along the US Atlantic coast from 2015 to 2100. Thermal preferences were derived from survey data, and modeled bottom temperatures were adjusted to better reflect observed habitat conditions. Projections indicated declines in suitable thermal habitat for all species, although rates varied, with poleward shifts in northern range edges evident by the end of the century. Projected changes in suitable thermal habitat are likely to contribute to shifts in species distributions, which may require fisheries management bodies to co-develop strategies that address the reorganization of marine ecosystems under climate change. Enhancing model resolution and accounting for regional factors should significantly improve these predictions, allowing for the use of robust species distribution models.