A quinquennial analysis of India’s foreign trade (pre and Post-COVID-19)

This study is motivated by the COVID-19 pandemic's profound disruptions to global trade. A quinquennial analysis of India's foreign trade to reveal pre- and post-crisis trends, resilience, and strategic policy insights. This study analyzes India's pre- and post-pandemic foreign trade trends, major export/import items, and five-year trade deficits. This study employs secondary data from DGFT, RBI, Economic Surveys, and official reports on India's exports, imports, and deficits over five financial years (in crore rupees/US$ billion). Analytical tools include descriptive statistics, comparative/trend analysis, sectoral breakdowns, and visualizations via charts/graphs for interpretability. India's post-COVID exports soared to $778B (2023–24) from pandemic lows, driven by electronics, pharma, and textiles. Deficit shrank to $78.1B; US became top partner ($128.55B), surpassing China. 2020 saw 23.4% export/42.4% import drops, recovering to $432B merchandise/$344.5B services by 2023 via reforms. India’s Exports declined mildly during COVID (-3.9% to -2.7%), then surged 45.7% post-lockdown, before a -34.0% drop. Imports fell sharply (-6.4% to -13.3%), rebounded 56.9%, then fell by -24.3%, signaling volatile recovery. India's diverse exports led by mineral fuels (9.2%), gems (8.96%), pharma (6.64%), it is 3.95% (2021) GDP. India's top imports: mineral fuels (25.2%, $99.7B), gems (13.9%, $55.1B), electrical machinery (11.8%, $46.6B). A fluctuating India trade deficit increased in 2020-21 then it is declined to 138.24 million rupees in the financial year of 2022-23. India's foreign trade fluctuated with COVID slump then rebounded to record $778B exports (2023–24) via reforms. Persistent deficit urges export diversification, import substitution, value-chain ascent for $1T goal.