Recalibrating the Global 1.5 °C Pathway: India’s Leadership and Opportunity Toward 2035

The 1.5 °C temperature threshold represents a critical limit for global climate stability, yet current trajectories remain misaligned with this goal. This study reassesses India’s role in recalibrating the global 1.5 °C pathway, with a specific focus on the underexplored 2035 mid-term horizon. Using a mixed-method approach combining secondary data analysis, comparative policy review, and climate-finance assessment, the paper evaluates India’s progress in renewable-energy expansion, emission-intensity reduction, and sectoral decarbonisation. The findings show that while global climate governance remains off-track due to rising emissions and delayed commitments, India demonstrates emerging alignment through rapid renewable growth, indigenous mitigation initiatives, and equity-driven climate diplomacy. However, structural inertia, continued fossil-fuel dependence, and governance fragmentation constrain full 1.5 °C compatibility. The study identifies 2035 as a decisive window for accelerated coal phase-out, grid and storage integration, and strengthened climate-finance mechanisms. It concludes that with enhanced policy coherence, institutional coordination, and South-South cooperation, India can transition from an emerging climate actor to a global climate leader.